One of the key things that traders and wannabe traders should learn is how the market works. How and why currencies change from long to short, why currency jump around “noise”, why after news the market might rocket in one direction only to rocket back in another.
I came close to quitting Forex in the summer of 2008. I had lost a bundle on a trade. (A bundle can be relative. It was big enough that I didn’t tell my wife how much for several days.)
I sat in a Starbucks early the next morning wondering if I should call it quits. Reflecting on the trades I had made over the past several years, I was sure, had I taken the other side of most of those trades, I would be rich. Unfortunately I was not making money.
I really didn’t want to quit. I hated the idea of giving up on something in which I had put so much time and energy (and money); something I was sure could be conquered. And being in my late 50s at the time, the idea of going back to work for someone again was more depressing than losing the money.
I had spent a great deal of time and money on trading books, software programs and trading courses. I had been to seminars and read hours of forum posts. I had taken some of the best trading courses according to many),and worked with some of the best traders (according to many). Much of what I had done didn’t seem to help much. It was like having a PhD and wondering, now what?
Sitting in that Starbucks I felt like I had tried every avenue available and there was no answer. It also occurred to me as I thought about what I had learned that in all of it, there was little I could put my finger on that was true about trading. In other words, after all of the study, nothing really showed any level of consistency or reliability.
When you learn to shoot a jump shot in basketball there are fundamentals you follow; position the ball in your hands properly, square your body to the basket, jump while bringing the ball over your head and at the top shoot the ball with a nice easy follow-through. Having done that in my youth I knew before the ball left my hand or as it left my hand whether it was going in. When something went wrong it was easy to check your fundamentals and find the problem.
In trading there was some of that but it was hard to know after all the analysis, what to do. Everyone had systems that seemed to have different rules or fundamentals. I could follow a logical number of steps to a decision but invariably the decision would be wrong more than it was right. And when it was right, it never seemed to be right long enough to offset all the wrongs. I told my wife that I wasn’t buying another book on trading or Forex, “The answer isn’t in any book because I guarantee you, I’ve read them all! ”In my head however, I was thinking, there must be an answer.
The funny part is that I had to eat my words. A week later at Barnes and Noble I read through a book that set me off in a direction that I hadn’t followed before (and I bought it!). I am here to tell you today that the direction was not the correct one but sometimes what seems right, can still be very close to the truth. In this case it set me off in the right direction.
At this point in time I had tried a number of different avenues including: Harmonic Pattern, Candle Stick Formations, Elliott Wave Theory... I had studied Price Action extensively with people like the Hector Deville group. If anything, Price Action as taught by this group of traders is about as close to a fundamentally sound methodology as can be found in trading. I studied confluence and correlation. I studied Fibonacci methods used by Constance Brown in her book Fibonacci Analysis as well as many others.
|A signal that combine Elliot Wave Theory, Harmonic Pattern, CandleStick Formation, RSI, MACD is a good one!|
At some point it became clear to me that it was easy to create a trading signal. That may seem obvious: creating a signal is easy. Give me a sheet of paper and a pencil and I could list them as fast as I could write.
As a trader, you need a signal that tells you it is “time to trade”. That’s the obvious part. What is not obvious are the details that tell you if you should trade at that moment or not at all. One of the things most traders have trouble with is when “not to trade.” Knowing when to stay out of trade is just as important as when to trade, maybe more important.
In near future, I will show you some systems that will help you a sure-fire winning !!!